Comerica (CMA)

CMA Weekly Chart

Comarica (CMA): Bought Jan 09 Put on the expectations that it will challenge the previous low after breaking its rising flag pattern. Support 20/11. However, the 10% gain in DJI may change this scenario now.

Underestimating the down strength

I always underestimate the strength for a particular move. It's never perfect for me in managing my trades. I'm currently having a light position to the downside. How low will it go before a rebound? I think that this next downside move will not be so strong as compared with the one in early October. The ratings for various sectors remains:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Oil	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down	Down
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Down
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Shipping	Down	Down	Down
Sig Steel	Down	Down	Down
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Biotech	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Airline	Down	Down	Neutral

Rollercoaster Week

Up and down, up and down. What a week. The market looks like it has stabilized a bit. Most blogs are calling for the bottom and a rebound towards the end of the year. I think that we should have one more leg down before any meaningful rebound will happen. Why? The banks looks more vulnerable now and I think that the next sell down will be led by the banks.

The reading for various US sectors are:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Oil	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down	Down
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Down
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Shipping	Down	Down	Down
Sig Steel	Down	Down	Down
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Biotech	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Airline	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

SunTrust Banks (STI)

STI Weekly Chart

SunTrust Banks (STI): It gave me a sell signal a few days back. Looks like it has broken it's rising flag formation. Bought Jan 09 put.

Textron (TXT)

TXT Weekly Chart

Textron (TXT): An oversold bounce play. May have found support in the 15-18 range. Best rebound scenario is to 30.00. Bought Dec 08 Call.

Gold Shares ETF (GLD)

GLD Weekly Chart

Gold Shares ETF (GLD): Looks like the rising triangle has been broken. Is gold breaking down like all other commodities? Bought Jan 09 Put.

Agrium (AGU)

AGU Weekly Chart

Agrium (AGU): At oversold position. At possible support. Can it rebound? Resistance: 50/60/75. Bought January 09 Call.

Meltdown Week

What a crazy week. Everything is down now:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Oil	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down	Down
KBW Bank	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Housing	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
PHLX Shipping	Down	Down	Down
Sig Steel	Down	Down	Down
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Biotech	Down (-)	Down (-)	Down
AMEX Airline	Down	Down (-)	Down

I was selling my put options from Monday to Friday. I didn't manage to earn a lot because many of my options are expiring this month and I just sold them when I break even or near break even. Too bad I got the direction right but not the time. Anyway, who can imagine the ferocity of the selling?

I have gotten out 2/3 of my put options by last Friday. I'm looking for a rebound now. If you go around the blogs, a lot of traders are looking for a rebound too. Hopefully I can reload my put options with this rebound.

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

XOM Weekly Chart

Exxon Mobil (XOM): Resting at uptrend line. Should break down anytime soon. Support: 70/65/56. Bought Jan put.

Diana Shipping (DSX)

DSX Daily Chart

Diana Shipping (DSX): I rarely play rebound, but the 800 point drop is too extreme. Furthermore, Cramer who is a very emotional trader/investor was screaming SELL SELL SELL. Anyway, I detected a bullish divergence in the DSX daily chart. Possible rebound to 20s. That is why I bought Dec Calls.

Allstate Corp. (ALL)

ALL Weekly Chart

Allstate Corp. (ALL): Looks like it is has broken down from it's consolidation area. Support 40/28. I have bought Jan 09 Put. I don't have much luck with trading options of insurance company. Hopefully this one will.

Bailout Week

Finally the bailout has been passed! The bailout has made me nervous the whole week. As with everybody, I was expecting the market to rally when it is passed. It didn't happen (yet?).

My interpretations of selected sectors:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down
Oil	Down	Down	Down (-)
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Down
Bank	Down	Neutral	Neutral (-)
Insurance	Down	Down	Down
Housing	Down	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)
Shipping	Down	Down	Down
Steel	Down	Down	Down
Retail	Down	Down (-)	Down
Biotech	Neutral (-)	Neutral	Down
Airline	Down	Neutral	Down (-)

I'm keenly watching the banking sector. Going to get some puts. Maybe increasing puts for retailers too. Everything is very oversold at the moment. So, I will be very cautious on any rebound.

Stryker (SYK)

SYK Weekly Chart

Stryker (SYK): Broke down from its rising flag. Support at 59/54. Bought 2009 Jan Put.

September 08 Performance

These are the trades that I have closed for the month of September 2008:

1. LEH Oct Put (--): Poor management of position. Cut loss due to the reason that I'm very uncomfortable with any options that has less than 1 month lifetime.
2. CMG Sep Put (+): Just in time of getting myself out of this position as I thought that it will expired worthless. Lucky me.
3. MFC Sep Put (--): Not lucky enough for this one. Almost expired worthless.
4. PTR Sep Put (+): Sudden drop in HK shares. Lucky to make a profit with this one.
5. MET Sep Put (---): Expired worthless.
6. GHL Sep Put (---): Expired worthless.
7. COF Sep Put (---): Expired worthless.
8. SLT Sep Call (---): Expired worthless.
9. GS Oct Put (2+): Too bad I didn't have an Internet connection when GS crashes. Opportunity missed. The profit could have been equivalent to my initial capital. Just too bad.
10. BGC Nov Put (3+): After so many bad trades, just have to take some profit with this one.
11. SINA Dec Put (+): Take profit again because I was nervous about the bailout.

In total, I still manage to edge out a tiny profit for the month of September. My total account position is now above my initial capital (about 60% higher).