Nova Gold

NG Daily Chart

Long in Nova Gold (NG). Gave me a buy signal and may have been broken out of the short term downtrend. This stock is trading in a tight channel.

Commodities

If USD goes down, commodity price will go up. If demands pick up, commodities will go up some more. There are many ETF or ETN in US for you to invest in commodities.

You can read more about the performance of commodities in the following links:

1. 2009 Commodity Fund Performance - Part I
2. 2009 Commodity Fund Performance - Part II
3. 2009 Commodity Fund Performance - Part III

PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)

DGP Weekly Chart

Gold has broken the falling flag pattern twice. Good chance to challenge 1000 again. This time it may break. Bought DGP.

Gold Bugs

People say gold is a good hedge against inflation. For me, gold is just another commodity that is subjected to speculation. It is no different to crude oil, silver or wheat.

The current theme play in the world market is against the USD. As the government prints more money to rescue their banking system, demand vs supply law says that the USD value will drop. The last time USD drop, every commodity that can be traded rose. The chart evidence shows that USD is dropping again. Well, you all know that the crude oil is now above USD60.00.

So, if you like to play gold, I think that the odds favors it to go to USD1,000.00 again. Gold has tried twice to break above USD1,000.00 but not successful (see the attached 30-year gold chart). If it is not successful this 3rd time, gold may drop to USD700.00 again.

If you want to invest in gold, you can do through the following ETF in the US: IAU(USD92.29) and GLD(USD92.25).

For me, I will buy the ETN: DGP(USD20.41). DGP is designed to return 2x the performance (up or down) of gold. Remember,ETN is like ETF but more risky. Stop loss for DGP is USD17.50.

Gold and Silver

My analysis says that USD is going down. The last time USD goes down, commodity prices goes up. So, I hope that you have your foreign account readied.

I'm looking into gold and silver.

I think that most will prefer gold. However, silver has given me a buy signal. Currently silver is at USD13.00, I think that it can test USD15.00 soon. If you want to invest in silver, you can through SLV, AGQ and DBS. If silver drops under 11.77, then silver will not rally and you should cut loss.

For gold, it still didn't give me the buy signal yet. Keep an eye on GLD, IAU, DGP and DGL.

Disclosure: I have no position in gold or silver.

October 08 Performance

The month of October was a good month for me. As usual, I underestimated the down move, thus I missed out a lot of profits. Options that I have closed are:

• ACE Nov Put (++): From profit to loss to profit. What a roller coaster ride.
  
• ALL Jan Put (6+): Good one! Almost nail the bottom.
• AXB Dec Put (4+): Good one!
  
• AXP Oct Put (-): As expiration nears, I dump this before the great move down! Duh!
• AXP Jan Put (+++): This one is hard to play. So, I'm getting out.
• AUY Oct Call (---): Believed that gold will go higher. Wanted to wait for it to go higher, but the believe didn't have enough time to work out. Expired worthless.
  
• CB Oct Put (+): Glad to get out of this one with a really tiny profit.
  
• COH Nov Put (++): Took profit too early.
• CS Dec Put (6+): Good one! Almost nail the low.
  
• DSX Dec Put (+++): Took an early profit for this.
• EP Oct Call (---): What a believe! Believe that the world is craving for more energy, didn't let go due this believe, so got flattened!
  
• GME Jan Put (++): Took profit due to the fear of a strong rebound.
  
• JWN Oct Put(+): Glad to get out of this one without a loss.
• KSS Oct Put (=): Just glad to get out without a loss for this one.
• LM Nov Put (8+): Fantastic! Could have been better, but I'm satisfied.
  
• LVS Dec Put (7+): Sold at mid-teens. Thought that that was the lowest it can get to. Boy was I wrong!
• MDC Dec Put (++): Took an early profit.
  
• MGM Nov Put (+++): Took profit while it was in the high teens.
• MGM Dec Put (6+): Good one!
  
• OSG Jan Put (4+): Good one!
• PDCO Oct Put (+): Glad to get out of this one as it almost expired worthless.
• RL Oct Put (--): Took a loss due to expiration date.
• V Dec Put (7+): Fantastic! Almost near the low.

I guessed correctly the retailers direction, but my timing was all wrong. Thus, most of my retailers counters was lucky to go into the black.

Watch list for 14 July 2008

I'm bearish on the following:
Chubb Corp (CB): Looks like a break down from range trading. A triple top. Supports at 45/40/30.
Akamai (AKAM): Rising flag broken. Supports at 29/17/11.
Hewlett Packard (HPQ): Broken rising flag. Supports 40/38/30.
General Cable (BGC): Rising flag broken. Supports 54/36.
Google (GOOG): May cover gap fram 459-524. Technicals getting negative. Supports 520/420.

I'm bullish on gold:
Royal Gold (RGLD): Strong resistance at 35. Then 40.
Newmont (NEM): Uptrend forming. Resistance 56/61.

Yamana Gold (AUY)

AUY Weekly Chart

Given me a buy signal. Currently under correction. Hopefully it is not a fake move. Resistance at 20.00. Bought CALL for this.