Saturday, January 24, 2009

Waiting for stock massacre

Looks like things are turning for the worst:
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
Nasdaq Comp Down Down Down
Russell 2000 Down Down Down
AMEX Natural Gas Down Down Down
AMEX Oil Down Down (-) Down (-)
AMEX Security Broker Down Down Down
KBW Bank Down Down Down
KBW Insurance Down Down Down
PHLX Housing Down Down Down
PHLX Shipping Down Down (-) Down (-)
S&P Retail Down Down (-) Down (-)
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Neutral

I'm waiting for the next slaughter. I'm still holding all my position and didn't close them during last week's bank massacre. Hopefully I'm right.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Celgene (CELG)

CELG Weekly Chart

CELG has given another sell signal. Price below the uptrend channel yet again. The next uptrend channel is at 30.Weekly RSI uptrend also broken. Another try but with smaller position. Bought 2009 Apr put.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Financials Down

Only the Biotech sector is standing. Oil, shipping, retail and airline is still neutral. Financials are all down.
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down (-) Down (-)
DJI Down Down (-) Down (-)
Nasdaq Comp Down Down (-) Down (-)
Russell 2000 Down Down (-) Down (-)
AMEX Natural Gas Down Down (-) Down (-)
AMEX Oil Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Security Broker Down Down Down (-)
KBW Bank Down Down Down
KBW Insurance Down Down (-) Down (-)
PHLX Housing Down Down (-) Down (-)
PHLX Shipping Down Neutral Neutral (-)
S&P Retail Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Up (+)
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Neutral (-)

Friday, January 16, 2009

Sigma-Aldrich Corporation (SIAL)

SIAL Weekly Chart

SIAL has broken its ascending triangle. Long term uptrend also broken. Support 35/27/25. Bought 2009 Apr put.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Chubb (CB)

CB Weekly Chart

CB has broken its ascending triangle. Also, it has broken its uptrend line again. Supports: 35/25. Bought 2009 Apr put.

St. Jude Medical (STJ)

STJ Weekly Chart

STJ has broken its rising flag. Supports: 25/22/16. Bought 2009 Apr put.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Chevron (CVX)

CVX Weekly Chart

CVX has broken its triangle. Supports: 55/48. Bought March 2009 put. Hopefully, CVX will make me money this time. The last time I bought the puts, I didn't take profit, so my puts will expire worthless this Friday. I didn't get out of the position because CVX has broken its uptrend line. The only direction to go is down. But, my Jan 2009 puts ran out of time.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

WFC Weekly Chart

WFC has broken a triangle. To challenge uptrend line at 22 again. Supports: 22/19/13. Bought April 2009 put.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)

FLO Weekly Chart


FLO Daily Chart

FLO has broken from a rising flag (from daily chart). Long term uptrend also broken (from weekly chart). Supports 20/17. Bought Apr put.

Comerica (CMA)

CMA Daily Chart

CMA has broken down from a triangle. Support at 15/11. Bought Apr put.

Santa Claus Rally Over?

Looks like the Santa Claus rally may be over. The banks has turned down again:
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Neutral Neutral
DJI Down Neutral Neutral
Nasdaq Comp Down Neutral Neutral
Russell 2000 Down Neutral Neutral
AMEX Natural Gas Down Neutral (+) Neutral
AMEX Oil Down Neutral Up
AMEX Security Broker Down Down Neutral
KBW Bank Down Down Down (-)
KBW Insurance Down Neutral Neutral (-)
PHLX Housing Down Neutral Up
PHLX Shipping Down Neutral Up (+)
S&P Retail Down Neutral Up
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Up

For sectors that are labeled neutral, looks like they are turning weak again. Not confirm yet that they will rush to the downside.

Friday, January 9, 2009

December 08 Performance

Not a good month for me. My hot streak has cooled down and may take a turn for the worse next month. Positions that has been closed in the month of Dec 08 are:
  • CB 09 Jan Put (-): Cut loss.
  • ACE 09 Jan Put (+): Got out of the position to protect capital. Barely break even.
  • DSX 08 Dec Call (---): Expires worthless.
  • TXT 08 Dec Call (---): Expires worthless.
So, my rebound play with calls didn't work at all due to bad timing. I think I will stick to playing the weekly trend direction.

JP Morgan (JPM)

First trade of the year. Still looking out for a strong trend. Without strong trend, the options have a higher probability of expiring without making any significant movement.

JPM Weekly Chart

JP Morgan (JPM): Bought Mar 09 put. It may be moving to challenge the previous low. It has broken a smaller rising flag a month ago. Support 20/16.

Monday, January 5, 2009

Hit Left and Right

I'm hit right and left for being bearish. Will wait until clearer signals emerges.
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Neutral (+) Neutral (+)
DJI Down Neutral (+) Neutral (+)
Nasdaq Comp Down Neutral (+) Neutral
Russell 2000 Down Neutral (+) Neutral
AMEX Natural Gas Down Down Neutral (+)
AMEX Oil Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
AMEX Security Broker Down Down Neutral (+)
KBW Bank Down Down Neutral (+)
KBW Insurance Down Neutral Up (+)
PHLX Housing Down Neutral Up (+)
PHLX Shipping Down Neutral (+) Neutral (+)
S&P Retail Down Neutral Up (+)
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Up