Saturday, February 28, 2009

Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (PCL)

PCL Daily Chart

PCL has broken out from a triangle. Consolidation range should be over. Supports: 24/18/15. Bought 2009 May PUT.

Still Bearish

The US government is doing all it can from saying that the big banks are insolvent. All sectors except biotech is pointing downwards (based on weekly reading):
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
Nasdaq Comp Down Down Down
Russell 2000 Down Down Down
AMEX Airline Down Down Down
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Neutral
AMEX Natural Gas Down Down Down
AMEX Oil Down Down Down
AMEX Security Broker Down Down Down
KBW Bank Down Down Neutral (+)
KBW Insurance Down Down Down
PHLX Housing Down Down Down
PHLX Semiconductor Down Down Down
S&P Retail Down Down Down

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (DPS)

DPS Daily Chart

DPS has broken out of consolidation pattern and should test 13.50 again. Support: 13.50. Bought 2009 May PUT.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

XOM Weekly Chart

I did not take profit the last time I played XOM's option. As a result, the profit turned into a total loss. I'm entering again, bought 2009 Apr PUT. Support is at 60 (uptrend line).

Nationalization Speculation Week

Everything is pointing down except biotech:
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
Nasdaq Comp Down Down Down (-)
Russell 2000 Down Down Down
AMEX Airline Down Down Down
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Natural Gas Down Down (-) Down (-)
AMEX Oil Down Down (-) Down (-)
AMEX Security Broker Down Down (-) Down (-)
KBW Bank Down Down Down
KBW Insurance Down Down Down
PHLX Housing Down Down Down
PHLX Semiconductor Down Down (-) Down (-)
S&P Retail Down Down Down

Not many counters left that is high enough to allow me to play the options. I will be looking for some retail counters this weekend. So, when will the US government nationalize Citibank and Bank of America? The speculation sure has beaten the financials. I am wondering how low will they go?

Friday, February 20, 2009

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

BLK Weekly Chart

BLK has given a sell signal, broke down twice from a rising flag formation. It should break the weekly uptrend channel. Support: 95/80. Bought 2009 Apr PUT.

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

TRV Weekly Chart

Anticipating a sell signal from TRV soon. This time it should break the uptrend support line. Supports: 38/30.

Chevron (CVX)

CVX Weekly Chart

CVX has given another sell signal. Supports: 55/48. Bought Jun PUT.

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)

HPQ Weekly Chart

Bought the May PUT of HPQ on Feb 2. Didn't post it because I was busy with the Chinese New Year celebration, traveling and moving. HPQ should test 29.00 again.

Monday, February 16, 2009

January 2009 Performance

After a few months of hot performance, I'm hit with a nuclear winter for January 2009. Kaboom! I guess that regression to the mean is in effect. It is a totally disastrous month for me. This will definitely hit my confidence badly. Time to reduce trade.

The following options all expired worthless:
XOM put, V put, AGU call, GLD put, STI put (the expected action was late by 1 week after expiration!), CELG put, BIIB put, CVX put, GENZ put, MMM put.

I have large position in oil and biotech sectors. These two sectors goes up instead. That explains the large hit. The lesson learned is not to overtrade and not to overweight too much on a sector.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Final Selling?

Majority of the sectors have been downgraded, only biotech is still standing. This could be the final selling:
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down (-)
DJI Down Down Down (-)
Nasdaq Comp Down Down Neutral
Russell 2000 Down Down Down (-)
AMEX Natural Gas Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Oil Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Security Broker Down Neutral Neutral (-)
KBW Bank Down Down Down (-)
KBW Insurance Down Down Down (-)
PHLX Housing Down Down Down (-)
S&P Retail Down Down Down (-)
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Up
AMEX Airline Down Down (-) Down

Monday, February 9, 2009

Stimulus Push

Oh, I thought it was going down the cliff for the banks. Well, even if the government is willing to pay extra, do they have enough money? My play is to the downside, so I'm not doing well at all. I just noticed that the shipping index data has not been updated since Jan 23, 2009. Thus, I have to take it out of my sector readings. Looks like the Thursday and Friday actions has somehow stabilized the prices and biotech is hot (but I'm at the wrong side of the game!).
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Neutral (+)
DJI Down Down Neutral (+)
Nasdaq Comp Down Down Neutral (+)
Russell 2000 Down Down Neutral (+)
AMEX Natural Gas Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
AMEX Oil Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
AMEX Security Broker Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
KBW Bank Down Down Neutral (+)
KBW Insurance Down Down Neutral (+)
PHLX Housing Down Down Neutral (+)
S&P Retail Down Down Neutral (+)
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Up (+)
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Down

Monday, February 2, 2009

Going Down

All sectors should go into negative bias this week:
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Down Down
DJI Down Down Down
Nasdaq Comp Down Down Down
Russell 2000 Down Down Down
AMEX Natural Gas Down Down Neutral (+)
AMEX Oil Down Down Neutral (+)
AMEX Security Broker Down Down Neutral (+)
KBW Bank Down Down Down
KBW Insurance Down Down Down
PHLX Housing Down Down Down
PHLX Shipping Down Down Down
S&P Retail Down Down Down
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral Neutral
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Down (-)