Saturday, May 30, 2009

Coeur d`Alene Mines Corporation (CDE)

CDE Daily Chart

CDE has broken out of its triangle formation. Bought 2009 Jul call.

Gulfmark Offshore Inc. (GLF)

GLF Weekly Chart

GLF has broken of rectangular formation. Bought 2009 Jul Call.

Sector Indexes

Gold has moved, energy is moving now. The next one, I think will be transport (i.e. shipping).

USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Up (+)
DJ Industrial Down Up (+) Up (+)
DJ Transport Down Neutral Up (+)
DJ Utility Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
Nasdaq Comp Down Up Up (+)
Russell 2000 Down Up Up (+)
AMEX Airline Down Down Down (-)
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral (+) Up (+)
AMEX Gold Bugs Up (+) Up Up
AMEX Natural Gas Down Up Up (+)
AMEX Oil Down Up (+) Up (+)
AMEX Security Broker Down Up Up
AMEX Telco Up (+) Up Up (+)
KBW Bank Down Up (+) Up (+)
KBW Insurance Down Up Up
PHLX Housing Down Neutral Neutral
PHLX Semiconductor Up (+) Up Up
S&P Retail Up Up Neutral

Friday, May 29, 2009

Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (SOLF)

SOLF Weekly Chart

SOLF has broken its downtrend line. Moving up nicely. Bought 2009 Sept call.

DryShips, Inc. (DRYS)

DRYS Daily Chart

DRYS is at lower end of channel. May hit the upper end at 10.00. Almost giving a daily buy signal. Bought 2009 Jul call.

Commodities

If USD goes down, commodity price will go up. If demands pick up, commodities will go up some more. There are many ETF or ETN in US for you to invest in commodities.

You can read more about the performance of commodities in the following links:
  1. 2009 Commodity Fund Performance - Part I
  2. 2009 Commodity Fund Performance - Part II
  3. 2009 Commodity Fund Performance - Part III

Thursday, May 28, 2009

United States Natural Gas (UNG)

UNG Weekly Chart

Bottom fishing UNG. Crude oil has rally, but not natural gas. Speculating that it will follow soon. 

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Oil Shock

Natural Gas Monthly Chart

Crude Oil Monthly Chart

A McKinsey report says that an oil shock is inevitable. How can you profit from this if it happens?

One way is to buy crude oil ETF/ETN or to invest in companies in the industry. Another is to buy natural gas because it is another energy source.

You can buy natural gas ETF through UNG. Look at the charts for crude oil and natural gas. You can see that natural gas price continues to stay low while crude oil has rallied almost 70% from its low. For those that like bottom fishing, I think that UNG is a good investment. The price should turn up when the emerging markets can grow their economy without relying on the Western countries consumption.

AVI Biopharma, Inc. (AVII)

AVII Weekly Chart

Bought AVII for my swine flu play. It has broken the downtrend line.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)

DGP Weekly Chart

Gold has broken the falling flag pattern twice. Good chance to challenge 1000 again. This time it may break. Bought DGP.

Gold Bugs

People say gold is a good hedge against inflation. For me, gold is just another commodity that is subjected to speculation. It is no different to crude oil, silver or wheat.

The current theme play in the world market is against the USD. As the government prints more money to rescue their banking system, demand vs supply law says that the USD value will drop. The last time USD drop, every commodity that can be traded rose. The chart evidence shows that USD is dropping again. Well, you all know that the crude oil is now above USD60.00.

So, if you like to play gold, I think that the odds favors it to go to USD1,000.00 again. Gold has tried twice to break above USD1,000.00 but not successful (see the attached 30-year gold chart). If it is not successful this 3rd time, gold may drop to USD700.00 again.

If you want to invest in gold, you can do through the following ETF in the US: IAU(USD92.29) and GLD(USD92.25).

For me, I will buy the ETN: DGP(USD20.41). DGP is designed to return 2x the performance (up or down) of gold. Remember,ETN is like ETF but more risky. Stop loss for DGP is USD17.50.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Passing the baton to emerging markets

Marc Faber says that the economic leadership is now in the process of being passed to the emerging markets. That is why we have so much distruption in the market. Read the story here.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

SLV Weekly Chart

SLV has broken from a descending flag. Should challenge the downtrend line soon. I'm long SLV.

Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS)

FAS Weekly Chart

FAS is trading within a channel. RSI and Stochastic shows that it got potential to go higher. Daily chart gave me a buy signal. I'm long FAS. 

Supercharged ETFs

How much risk are you willing to take?

Do you know that there is a group of ETFs that is designed to return you 3x than the normal underlying stocks? This means that for a 1% increase in the underlying stock, your ETF will rise 3%. The reverse will also be true. So, 3X ETF is not for the faint heart. But if you can time properly your entry, you will surely be rewarded.

You can search finance.yahoo.com for the ETFs that I'm talking about:
TYO Direxion Daily 10 Yr Trsy Bear 3X Shares66.42ETF
PCX
TYDDirexion Daily 10 Yr Trsy Bull 3X Shares 54.09ETF
PCX
TMVDirexion Daily 30 Yr Trsy Bear 3X Shares76.55ETF
PCX
TMFDirexion Daily 30 Yr Trsy Bull 3X Shares45.40ETF
PCX
DPKDirexion Daily Devlpd Mrkts Bear 3X Shrs36.68ETF
PCX
DZK Direxion Daily Devlpd Mrkts Bull 3X Shrs48.08ETF
PCX
EDZDirexion Daily Emrg Mrkts Bear 3X Shares 16.20ETF
PCX
EDCDirexion Daily Emrg Mrkts Bull 3X Shares78.54ETF
PCX
ERYDirexion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares22.25ETF
PCX
ERXDirexion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares32.59ETF
PCX
FAZ Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares4.82ETF
PCX
FASDirexion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares 10.31ETF
PCX
BGZDirexion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X Shares38.08ETF
PCX
BGUDirexion Daily Large Cap Bull 3X Shares33.11ETF
PCX
MWNDirexion Daily Mid Cap Bear 3X Shares33.53ETF
PCX
TZA Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares26.80ETF
PCX
TNADirexion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares 25.99ETF
PCX
TYPDirexion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares27.57ETF
PCX
TYHDirexion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares73.24ETF
PCX

You can see that you can take a bullish or bearish stand and the ETF will try to gives you a return of 3x.

Currently, I'm bullish. This rally is all about liquidity and hope. I'm stalking the following: FAS, TNA and TYH.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Weekly Analysis

Short squeeze over? Market still looks weak. The next move is to consolidate. This will take 1-2 weeks. Current charts do not indicate a possible panic move yet.

USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up Neutral (-)
DJI Down Neutral Neutral (-)
Nasdaq Comp Down Up Neutral (-)
Russell 2000 Down Up Neutral (-)
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Biotech Down Down (-) Down (-)
AMEX Natural Gas Down Up Neutral (-)
AMEX Oil Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Security Broker Down Up Neutral (-)
AMEX Telco Down (-) Up Neutral (-)
KBW Bank Down Neutral Neutral (-)
KBW Insurance Down Up Neutral (-)
PHLX Housing Down Up Neutral
PHLX Semiconductor Down Up Neutral (-)
S&P Retail Up Up Neutral

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Weekly Analysis

Biotech is giving me another buy signal. AMEX Oil is on near at the top consolidation range. Semiconductor was sold down.
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Up (+) Up
DJI Down Neutral Up
Nasdaq Comp Down Up Up
Russell 2000 Down Up (+) Up
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Up (+)
AMEX Biotech Down Neutral (+) Up
AMEX Natural Gas Down Up (+) Up
AMEX Oil Down Neutral Up
AMEX Security Broker Down Up Up
AMEX Telco Neutral (+) Up Up
KBW Bank Down Neutral Up (+)
KBW Insurance Down Up (+) Up
PHLX Housing Down Up Neutral
PHLX Semiconductor Down (-) Up Neutral (-)
S&P Retail Up Up Neutral (-)

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Gold and Silver

My analysis says that USD is going down. The last time USD goes down, commodity prices goes up. So, I hope that you have your foreign account readied.

I'm looking into gold and silver.

I think that most will prefer gold. However, silver has given me a buy signal. Currently silver is at USD13.00, I think that it can test USD15.00 soon. If you want to invest in silver, you can through SLV, AGQ and DBS. If silver drops under 11.77, then silver will not rally and you should cut loss.

For gold, it still didn't give me the buy signal yet. Keep an eye on GLD, IAU, DGP and DGL.

Disclosure: I have no position in gold or silver.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

OXY Weekly Chart

OXY has broken the downtrend line. Resistance: 64/80. Bought 2009 Jun Call.

Southern Copper Corp. (PCU)

PCU Weekly Chart

PCU should hit the downtrend line. Bought 2009 Sep Call.

Sunday, May 3, 2009

Weekly Review

Mixed performance. Still no strong trend developing.
USA Longterm Midterm Shorterm
S&P500 Down Neutral Up
DJI Down Neutral Up
Nasdaq Comp Down Up Up
Russell 2000 Down Neutral Up
AMEX Airline Down Neutral Neutral (-)
AMEX Biotech Down Down Up (+)
AMEX Natural Gas Down Neutral Up
AMEX Oil Down Neutral Up (+)
AMEX Security Broker Down Up Up
AMEX Telco Down Up Up
KBW Bank Down Neutral Neutral (-)
KBW Insurance Down Neutral Up
PHLX Housing Down Up Neutral (-)
PHLX Semiconductor Neutral (+) Up Up
S&P Retail Up (+) Up Up