Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc. (PCL)

PCL Daily Chart

PCL has broken out from a triangle. Consolidation range should be over. Supports: 24/18/15. Bought 2009 May PUT.

Still Bearish

The US government is doing all it can from saying that the big banks are insolvent. All sectors except biotech is pointing downwards (based on weekly reading):

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Down
Russell 2000	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Airline	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Biotech	Down	Neutral	Neutral
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Oil	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down	Down
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Semiconductor	Down	Down	Down
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down

Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (DPS)

DPS Daily Chart

DPS has broken out of consolidation pattern and should test 13.50 again. Support: 13.50. Bought 2009 May PUT.

Exxon Mobil (XOM)

XOM Weekly Chart

I did not take profit the last time I played XOM's option. As a result, the profit turned into a total loss. I'm entering again, bought 2009 Apr PUT. Support is at 60 (uptrend line).

Nationalization Speculation Week

Everything is pointing down except biotech:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Down (-)
Russell 2000	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Airline	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Biotech	Down	Neutral	Neutral (-)
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
AMEX Oil	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Down
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Semiconductor	Down	Down (-)	Down (-)
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down

Not many counters left that is high enough to allow me to play the options. I will be looking for some retail counters this weekend. So, when will the US government nationalize Citibank and Bank of America? The speculation sure has beaten the financials. I am wondering how low will they go?

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)

BLK Weekly Chart

BLK has given a sell signal, broke down twice from a rising flag formation. It should break the weekly uptrend channel. Support: 95/80. Bought 2009 Apr PUT.

The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

TRV Weekly Chart

Anticipating a sell signal from TRV soon. This time it should break the uptrend support line. Supports: 38/30.

Chevron (CVX)

CVX Weekly Chart

CVX has given another sell signal. Supports: 55/48. Bought Jun PUT.

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)

HPQ Weekly Chart

Bought the May PUT of HPQ on Feb 2. Didn't post it because I was busy with the Chinese New Year celebration, traveling and moving. HPQ should test 29.00 again.

January 2009 Performance

After a few months of hot performance, I'm hit with a nuclear winter for January 2009. Kaboom! I guess that regression to the mean is in effect. It is a totally disastrous month for me. This will definitely hit my confidence badly. Time to reduce trade.

The following options all expired worthless:
XOM put, V put, AGU call, GLD put, STI put (the expected action was late by 1 week after expiration!), CELG put, BIIB put, CVX put, GENZ put, MMM put.

I have large position in oil and biotech sectors. These two sectors goes up instead. That explains the large hit. The lesson learned is not to overtrade and not to overweight too much on a sector.

Final Selling?

Majority of the sectors have been downgraded, only biotech is still standing. This could be the final selling:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down (-)
DJI	Down	Down	Down (-)
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Neutral
Russell 2000	Down	Down	Down (-)
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Neutral	Neutral (-)
AMEX Oil	Down	Neutral	Neutral (-)
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Neutral	Neutral (-)
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Down (-)
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down (-)
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Down (-)
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down (-)
AMEX Biotech	Down	Neutral	Up
AMEX Airline	Down	Down (-)	Down

Stimulus Push

Oh, I thought it was going down the cliff for the banks. Well, even if the government is willing to pay extra, do they have enough money? My play is to the downside, so I'm not doing well at all. I just noticed that the shipping index data has not been updated since Jan 23, 2009. Thus, I have to take it out of my sector readings. Looks like the Thursday and Friday actions has somehow stabilized the prices and biotech is hot (but I'm at the wrong side of the game!).

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Russell 2000	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Neutral (+)	Up (+)
AMEX Oil	Down	Neutral (+)	Up (+)
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Neutral (+)	Up (+)
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Biotech	Down	Neutral	Up (+)
AMEX Airline	Down	Neutral	Down

Going Down

All sectors should go into negative bias this week:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Down
Russell 2000	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Oil	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Down
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Shipping	Down	Down	Down
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Biotech	Down	Neutral	Neutral
AMEX Airline	Down	Neutral	Down (-)