Akamai (AKAM)

AKAM Weekly Chart

AKAM has broken the rising flag. Supports 29/17/11 Bought PUT.

Rebound and Correction

Bullish sectors are making a correction. Bearish sectors are making a rebound. A look at the various sectors:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Natural Gas	Up	Neutral	Down (-)
Oil	Down (-)	Down (-)	Down
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Bank	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Insurance	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Housing	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Shipping	Neutral	Down (-)	Neutral (+)
Steel	Neutral	Down (-)	Down (-)
Retail	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

Greenhill (GHL)

GHL Weekly Chart

Hmmm...I seems to like playing this type of pattern. Greenhill (GHL) broke down from a 3 years range trading and now challenging the previous support. Bought PUT today as the rebound volume is not strong as compared to yesterday. Hopefully it moves down back quickly.

Chubb Corp (CB)

CB Weekly Chart

Chubb (CB) has broken down from rectangular box (more or less). Uptrend not supporting. Triple top. Supports 45/40/30. Opened PUT position.

Watch list for 14 July 2008

I'm bearish on the following:
Chubb Corp (CB): Looks like a break down from range trading. A triple top. Supports at 45/40/30.
Akamai (AKAM): Rising flag broken. Supports at 29/17/11.
Hewlett Packard (HPQ): Broken rising flag. Supports 40/38/30.
General Cable (BGC): Rising flag broken. Supports 54/36.
Google (GOOG): May cover gap fram 459-524. Technicals getting negative. Supports 520/420.

I'm bullish on gold:
Royal Gold (RGLD): Strong resistance at 35. Then 40.
Newmont (NEM): Uptrend forming. Resistance 56/61.

AXP & RL Puts

Opened two PUT position on Friday.

AXP Weekly Chart

American Express (AXP) has broken down from the rising flag 2 months ago. Just given the second sell signal. Weekly chart not yet oversold. Expecting more downside. Supports at 32/27/24.

RL Weekly Chart

Polo Ralph Laurent (RL) has also broken down from a rising flag. Possible supports at 48/35.

S&P Retail Index

S&P Retail Index Weekly Chart (ending Jul 9, 2008)

After 6 months of range bound movement (rectangular box), it broke down 2 weeks ago. From the chart, you can see that there is no major support until 250!

Retailers Sell Off

My retail stocks start to make me money. At least it compensate my heart ache on LVS. Did two trades today.

KSS Weekly Chart

Kohl's Corporation (KSS) : Looks like it has broken down from the rising flag formation. Possible supports at 32/25. Bought put for KSS.

ACE Weekly Chart

ACE Ltd (ACE): Looks like it has broken down from the rectangular box and also the first uptrend line. Possible supports at 46/45/37. Bought put for ACE.

Hard to read the chart

So, crude oil end flat and DJI goes down 236 points. Where is the reason that market should go up when oil goes down? It's hard to read the market, it tricked me of giving up some of my good position. As I usually only buy 1 contract per trade, there is no way for me to take partial profit. The exception was BAC. Too bad. Anyway, I bought the put for Goldman Sachs (GS) today. Support at 150/140/100.

GS Weekly Chart

Short Term Reversal

So, the bounce finally came. I'm still bearish. The market was very oversold based on daily chart. How high can the bounce go? I have established two put position on Tuesday morning, and the bulls pushed through in the afternoon! Based on candlestick chart, I have closed my put position for BAC, LM and LVS.

• BAC (10+): This is my best ever return. I don't think that I can repeat this. Close my put because of a bullish engulfing candle at a time when the daily & weekly chart is very oversold.
  
• LM (4+): Close my put because of a bullish engulfing candle that happens at the lower end of the downtrend channel. Additionally, the daily & weekly chart is very oversold.
• LVS (4+): Close my put because of a long shadow hammer. Both daily & weekly chart is very oversold too.
  

MET Weekly Chart

Uptrend line has been broken. Looks like 53 is still holding. Bought put for this when 53 was breached and I was expecting that it will become the resistance.

MFC Weekly Chart

Manulife (MFC) has broken the uptrend line (there are two). Currently testing the break. Support at 34/30. Bought the put for this.

Watch list for 7 July 2008

My watch list for Monday, 7 July 2008:

• Greenhill (GHL): If breaks 50.00, then support at 37/30.
• Credit Suisse (CS): Support 35/25.
• SVB Financial (SIVB): Support 40/33.
• Nymex (NMX): Support 75, then bottomless.
• Prudential (PRU): Support 54/46/40.
• Manulife (MFC): Support 34/30.
• Couch (COH): Support 25/19.
• Anixter (AXE): Triangle. Support 52/45.
• JCrew (JCG): Support 25.
• Kuhl's (KSS): Support ~41/32.
• JC Penney (JCP): Support ~35-36/26/15.
• Sinopec (SNP): Support 70/50.
• Amazon (AMZN): Support 62/36.

Looking to getting into PUTs.

Calls Crushed

Oh boy, more and more of my calls are getting crushed. Steel and natural gas selldown in the last two days of the week is no good. I'm expecting more downward pressure next week.

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Natural Gas	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral
Oil	Neutral (-)	Neutral	Down
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Down
Bank	Down	Down	Down
Housing	Down	Down	Down
Shipping	Neutral (-)	Neutral	Down
Steel	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)
Retail	Down	Down	Down

Lululemon (LULU)

LULU Weekly Chart

Gives sell signal again. Support at 26/21. Bought PUT for this .

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

CMG Weekly Chart

Given a sell signal a few days ago. May continue downwards. Support at 80/55. Anticipating that it breaks 80. Bought PUT for this.

Yamana Gold (AUY)

AUY Weekly Chart

Given me a buy signal. Currently under correction. Hopefully it is not a fake move. Resistance at 20.00. Bought CALL for this.

Jun 08 Performance

Luck still with me. Still managed to read the trend change from up to down. Closed the following positions in the month of June:

1. VLO put (--): Thought that oil will go lower, got fooled into cutting loss.
2. EP call (++): Sold out my nearer term call, then opened a longer term call.
3. MR call (++): Managed to get out at the top. This is the only one that I have perfect exit.
4. QCOM call (+): Didn't get a good price, but I'm still satisfied with the return as it got really volatile during the trend change.
5. HAL call (-): Cut loss on this one too as I thought that oil will get lower. Anyhow, I enter back a position later into the month.
6. BAC put (++++): Cannot resist in taking profit. This is my best ever return so far. Still got 2/3 position left.

For the rest of my call ideas, it looks like they are going to expire worthless: CAT call, GLW call and SLT call. Luckily, the put ideas is enough to compensate for my loss.

A summary of my holdings:

1. Calls: HAL, EP, STLD, CAT, GLW, SLT
2. Puts: ANF, BAC, GES, JWN, LM, LVS, PDCO, PTR

I am still looking to get into a few financial and retail puts.

Guess (GES)

GES Weekly Chart

I'm not sure which pattern that is dominant: ascending triangle or rectangle. Anyway, it seems to have breakdown. That is why I bought GES PUT.