Low Volume Rebound

I hate low volume rebound. Well, everyone is back by Monday. Let's see what is the true direction of the indexes.

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Russell 2000	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Oil	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
PHLX Shipping	Down	Down	Down
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
AMEX Biotech	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Airline	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

Going Down Again

Base on my readings, all major indexes are going down again.

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
Nasdaq Comp	Down	Down	Down
Russell 2000	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down (-)
AMEX Oil	Down	Down	Down (-)
AMEX Security Broker	Down	Down	Down
KBW Bank	Down	Down	Down
KBW Insurance	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Housing	Down	Down	Down
PHLX Shipping	Down	Down	Down
S&P Retail	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Biotech	Down	Down	Down
AMEX Airline	Down	Down	Down (-)

Bailout Week

Finally the bailout has been passed! The bailout has made me nervous the whole week. As with everybody, I was expecting the market to rally when it is passed. It didn't happen (yet?).

My interpretations of selected sectors:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down
Oil	Down	Down	Down (-)
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Down
Bank	Down	Neutral	Neutral (-)
Insurance	Down	Down	Down
Housing	Down	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)
Shipping	Down	Down	Down
Steel	Down	Down	Down
Retail	Down	Down (-)	Down
Biotech	Neutral (-)	Neutral	Down
Airline	Down	Neutral	Down (-)

I'm keenly watching the banking sector. Going to get some puts. Maybe increasing puts for retailers too. Everything is very oversold at the moment. So, I will be very cautious on any rebound.

Sector Indexes (20080815)

My interpretation for selected indexes for the week ending 15 Aug 2008.

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral
DJI	Down	Down	Neutral
NasdaqComp	Down	Neutral	Up (+)
Natural Gas	Down	Down	Down
Oil	Down	Down	Down
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Neutral
Bank	Down	Down	Neutral (-)
Insurance	Down	Down	Neutral
Housing	Down	Neutral (+)	Up (+)
Shipping	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Steel	Down	Down	Down
Retail	Down	Neutral (+)	Up (+)
Biotech	Up	Up	Up
Airline	Down	Neutral	Up

No Strong Trend

US sectors indexes reading is mix. No strong trend detected. A trendless market is the greatest enemy for an option trader!

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Neutral
Natural Gas	Neutral (-)	Down (-)	Down
Oil	Down	Down	Down
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Neutral
Bank	Down	Down	Neutral
Insurance	Down	Down	Neutral
Housing	Down	Down	Neutral
Shipping	Neutral	Down	Down (-)
Steel	Neutral	Down	Down
Retail	Down	Down	Neutral
Biotech	Up	Up	Up

Rebound and Correction

Bullish sectors are making a correction. Bearish sectors are making a rebound. A look at the various sectors:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Natural Gas	Up	Neutral	Down (-)
Oil	Down (-)	Down (-)	Down
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Bank	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Insurance	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Housing	Down	Down	Neutral (+)
Shipping	Neutral	Down (-)	Neutral (+)
Steel	Neutral	Down (-)	Down (-)
Retail	Down	Down	Neutral (+)

S&P Retail Index

S&P Retail Index Weekly Chart (ending Jul 9, 2008)

After 6 months of range bound movement (rectangular box), it broke down 2 weeks ago. From the chart, you can see that there is no major support until 250!

Calls Crushed

Oh boy, more and more of my calls are getting crushed. Steel and natural gas selldown in the last two days of the week is no good. I'm expecting more downward pressure next week.

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Natural Gas	Up	Neutral (-)	Neutral
Oil	Neutral (-)	Neutral	Down
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Down
Bank	Down	Down	Down
Housing	Down	Down	Down
Shipping	Neutral (-)	Neutral	Down
Steel	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)	Neutral (-)
Retail	Down	Down	Down

Sector Indexes

An overview of sectors in the US based on my intepretation:

USA	Longterm	Midterm	Shorterm
S&P500	Down	Down	Down
DJI	Down	Down	Down
NasdaqComp	Down	Down	Down
Natural Gas	Up	Up	Neutral
Oil	Up	Neutral	Down
SecurityBroker	Down	Down	Down
Bank	Down	Down	Down
Housing	Down	Down	Down
Shipping	Up	Neutral	Down
Steel	Up	Up	Up
Retail	Down	Down	Down

I'm still looking to buy PUTs for the financial and retail. For the oil and gas sector, I'll wait for more clearer signals.